Denver Nuggets comprehensive off-season plan

The Denver Nuggets shocked the world this postseason. What seemed like a great regular season team with a blossoming young core turned out to be in full bloom. The 25 year old Nikola Jokic and 23 year old Jamal Murray led the team to two 3-1 series comebacks against the Utah Jazz and title favorite LA Clippers. A team that was a game away from a first round exit in five ended up playing 19 playoff games. They finished their season a round away from the NBA Finals, where they ran into the eventual champion Lakers and could never find their footing.

The window seemed to be a year or two away. Jamal Murray was still on his rookie deal this year. The team’s best defender Gary Harris and starting small forward Will Barton were injured heading into the playoffs. Still, they persisted and toppled a really good and a great team. So the window is suddenly now.

If they want it. The ages of Jokic and Murray cannot be overstated, or their promise overestimated. But neither can the strength of the Western Conference. The champion Lakers will be better than last year. The Clippers will be better and more cohesive. The dynasty of the Golden State Warriors will be back. The season will not resume in a bubble. If they get through all of that, there’s still the Miami Heat, Brooklyn Nets, Milwaukee Bucks, or Boston Celtics looming at the mountaintop.

Nuggets President Tim Connelly may be the best executive in the league. He should know the team has time, but not to punt, because crazier things have happened. They should not take a developmental year, but they should not push all their chips in the middle. Let’s see what that looks like. Their biggest needs are rim protection, perimeter defense, and energy, sparkplug type players.

Current roster

The Nuggets have minimal cap space. Despite Paul Millsap ($30M), Mason Plumlee ($14M) and Jerami Grant ($9M) entering free agency, Jamal Murray’s salary ticks up some $23-25M from last year because he goes from his rookie deal to the first year of his max extension. This and a couple other smaller deals puts them at about $100M even. They only have 7-8 players on the team. We can add the #22 selection in November 18’s draft to make it 8-9 guys, and with that the pick’s $2,379,840 salary number. The cap should sit around $109M, meaning they have maybe $7 million to play with. They have bird rights for Jerami Grant, Paul Millsap, Mason Plumlee, and restricted free agent Torrey Craig. This means they can go over the cap to sign all of them if they want. This creates tough luxury tax decisions, but they could be better than 2-4 low-end free agents.

The Nuggets current rostered players look like this:

Nikola Jokic - $29,542,010 (signed through 2023)

Jamal Murray - $27,285,000 (2025)

Gary Harris - $19,160,714 (2022)

Will Barton - $13,723,214 (2022)

Michael Porter Jr. - $3,550,800 (2022)

Monte Morris - $1,663,861 (2021)

Vlatko Cancar - $1,517,981 (2022)

PJ Dozier - $1,200,000 (20221)

Bol Bol - two-way (2021)

They should keep Jerami Grant. According to a CBS Sports league source, his deal is looking like it’ll be in the $14-16 million yearly range. This would put them over the cap, but if they sign someone with their ~$7ish million in cap before Grant puts ink to paper, they can use both. Millsap and Plumlee probably walk. Torrey Craig probably walks as well, considering he plays the same position as now-healthy Will Barton and budding star Michael Porter, Jr. Vlatko Cancar probably does not make the top 12.

The Nuggets also have their mid-level exception ($9.26 million) and bi-annual exception ($3.62 million) that they can use to sign players for up to four years, even if they don’t have cap space. These will be huge, as they’ll still need two players if they retain Grant and their draft pick.

Free agents

Kris Dunn, Point Guard/Shooting Guard (Chicago Bulls) age 26

*Restricted Free Agent

One of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA. Has enough ball-handling skills to not be Tony Allen or Andre Roberson out there. Think of him like a slightly skinnier Marcus Smart with no scoring ability. Would play a Torrey Craig bench role nicely. Better defense and worse rebounding, more big defensive play ability.

Justin Holiday, Small Forward (Indiana Pacers) age 31

Energy and team defender. Less capable of defending bigger marks than other forwards, but perimeter defense is just as much of a problem for Denver, and he’s really good there. Career average three-point shooter suddenly turned that into 40.5% last season. The only potential qualm is how real that was.

Maurice Harkless, Forward (New York Knicks) age 27

An athletic and physical defender. Uses his physical gifts to not be useless on the offensive end. Can knock down threes at low volume. A better version of Torrey Craig because he isn’t useless on offense. Fits the Nuggets timeline. Experienced for 27. No telling on his price range after a wonky season across multiple teams, but he will certainly be available for the exception.

Jae Crowder, Forward (Miami Heat) age 30

As much a win-now move as any they can make. This would cost probably all of the mid-level exception, and they’d have to give him more than one year. Even then he could have better offers or roles. But if the Nuggets are serious about their chances starting this season, he would be a large upgrade over Torrey Craig and really help replace Paul Millsap. Can shoot better than both and defend multiple positions as well or better with his large frame + good mobility. Has played in the Finals and is effective against LeBron James, someone the Nuggets have to go through to win.

Jakob Poeltl, Power Forward/Center (San Antonio Spurs) age 24

*Restricted Free Agent

A better Mason Plumlee. Protects the rim better, fits better next to Jokic, much younger. Spurs may not let him go for the maximum the Nuggets can offer, which is the mid-level exception’s 4 years, $39.8 million total. He should be the Nuggets top of the wish list big.

Harry Giles, Power Forward (Sacramento Kings) age 22

Great talent that has had trouble staying on the floor. Similar to Nerlens Noel with a more advanced game offensively in exchange for a smaller difference in defense. Still pretty good on that end, and fluid enough to fit well next to Jokic. At 6’11” that would be a tough frontcourt for any team to match up with. The Nuggets have a great training staff but would not be able ask too much of him right away. If he proves everything is healed, giving him more and more minutes a night may show he’s even better than we think. Could be a small to medium bench piece this year, and a legit piece as the Nuggets window opens.

Nerlens Noel, Center (Oklahoma City Thunder) age 27

Maybe the best defending center in free agency. Probably more of a backup center than a player to put next to Jokic, but he could do a lot more than Plumlee could with the very large Serbian. If he ends up working with Jokic, depending on how big the opposing matchup is, he masks all of Jokic’s defensive deficiencies, which aren’t as numerous as we may think.

TRADES

The Nuggets’ future ability to compete at the championship level is clear right now. If they think their window is closer than I do, Jrue Holiday - everyone’s favorite trade target - is the best option. Holiday is a Defensive Player of the Year level guy, a top 5 isolation scorer, and a former all-star point guard. He is made in a lab to fit next to Jamal Murray. If the Nuggets wanted to trade for him, the framework of a deal they would accept would look something like this:

Gary Harris, Will Barton, Monte Morris

FOR

Jrue Holiday, Nicolo Melli

I’m not positive the Pelicans would do this, but it’s about as much as Denver would give up. The Nuggets could ask for E’Twuan Moore as well, who is super similar to Barton, instead of Melli. Michael Porter, Jr. is apparently untouchable, and plays the same position as Brandon Ingram anyways. This doesn’t make the Pelicans as young as they would like, and they lose their leader/maybe best player. New coach Stan Van Gundy should love Jrue, so I’m not sure he gets traded at all. Still, make no mistake: this would make the Nuggets certainly better right now, and championship contenders this season.

DRAFT

The Nuggets have only the 22nd selection in this year’s draft. Their second-round pick belongs to Brooklyn from the Kenneth Faried(!) trade.

This draft class is not great. However, it is deep, meaning someone that could go 10th could be available in the 20s. The margins between players and tiers on a big board are thinner than usual. Some targets at the 22nd slot:

Paul Reed - Power Forward, 6’9” 220 lb. from DePaul, 21.4 years

- 15.1 pts 10.7 reb 1.6 ast 2.6 stl 1.9 blk

- 51.6% fg 30.8% 3pt 73.8% ft

A baby Paul Millsap, right down to the first name. A fluid power forward with legit defense-first ability and nice rebounding. He was a late bloomer in college, and at 21.4 years old he’ll be more play-now than a lot of guys. Both of these are huge for the Nuggets’ timeline, because he can contribute right away, and late bloomer means he could just be scratching his potential’s ceiling.

Saddiq Bey - Forward, 6’8” 216 lb. from Villanova, 21.6 years

- 16.1 pts 4.7 reb 2.4 ast 0.8 stl 0.4 blk

- 46.9% fg 41.8% 3pt 76.9% ft

Playmaking and intelligent wing. Can shoot from deep, but not special from there. Still, that’s something the Nuggets desperately need off the bench. I wouldn’t bank on him being there at 22, but he could be moved up for no problem if needed. Reports say every team in this crummy draft wants to move their picks for assets.

Kira Lewis Jr. - Point Guard, 6’3” 165 lb. from Alabama, 19.6 years

- 18.5 pts 4.8 reb 5.2 ast 1.8 stl 0.6 blk

- 45.0% fg 36.6% 3pt 80.2% ft

Monte Morris is worth a lot more than he is being paid right now. He might be the best backup point guard in the NBA. Many teams have cap space in 2021, so the impending free agent will likely get a payday. If the Nuggets don’t/can’t keep him in free agency, this draft’s best and deepest position is point guard.

Lewis would be much more ready to take that backup role after a year behind Morris and Jamal Murray. The number one piece to his game is his speed, and that often takes some NBA coaching to be properly utilized with commensurate control.

The Nuggets could honestly take any point guard available at 22. In order, I like for them: Cole Anthony, RJ Hampton, Tre Jones, Cassius Winston, Theo Maledon, Jahmi’us Ramsey. *The first two would have to slip for Denver to have a chance at them.

Robert Woodard II - Small Forward, 6’7” 230 lb. from Mississippi State, 21.1 years

- 11.4 pts 6.5 reb 1.3 ast 1.1 stl 1.0 blk

- 49.5% fg 42.9% 3pt 64.1% ft

A combo forward that can defend 1-4. Great wingspan and athleticism. Probably won’t ever become a great offensive player or scorer. Made 43% of his threes, though, and knows what he is. Team player and should buy in well to everything Denver is about. Think Torrey Craig with some possible upside.

Tyler Bey - Power Forward, 6’7” 218 lb. from Colorado, 22.7 years

- 13.8 pts 9.0 reb 1.5 ast 1.5 stl 1.2 blk

- 53% fg 41.9% 3pt 74.3% ft

Undersized defensive power forward. Conference defensive player of the year. He uses his frame well with good agility, but will have trouble handling NBA power forwards and centers. If he is able to bulk up and improve his decision making, his ceiling is a tailor-made fit next to Jokic. Optimally, his perfect complement.

Summary plan

Needing to add probably 3-4 players means things depend on dominoes a little bit for Denver. The draft coming before free agency is also tough because they’re low pick won’t really solve questions, and there’s no telling which of their FA targets may be taken off the board.

In a perfect scenario, my Denver off-season comes to this:

Pray for Paul Reed to fall and move up if needed. A protected first could get it done, but Denver not having a second-rounder until 2023 is tough. Still, they can do it if they need. If they stay put, draft Tyler Bey.

In free agency, retain Jerami Grant and sign Kris Dunn. Finally, sign one of Justin Holiday, Maurice Harkless, or Torrey Craig in that order.

Rotation heading into 2020-21:

PG: Jamal Murray/Monte Morris/Kris Dunn

SG: Gary Harris/Will Barton/Kris Dunn/Justin Holiday

SF: Jerami Grant/Michael Porter, Jr./Will Barton/Justin Holiday

PF: Michael Porter, Jr./Paul Reed/PJ Dozier

C: Nikola Jokic/Paul Reed/Bol Bol

This team is not particularly better than last year’s team, but continuity begets a lot of growth. They will not be worse than a team that was just in the Western Conference Finals. That’s not a bad bar. Justin Holiday and Kris Dunn shore up a lot. Porter will be a lot better with sustained health, a defined role, and an entire season to grow. Paul Reed won’t be as good as Millsap right away, but he’s similar. Bol Bol might not be ready for legit minutes yet. I could see the team adding a minimum salary center to help backup Jokic if Denver doesn’t feel the second-year project is ready yet.